Temperature thresholds and time slices


Here are some thoughts on how ISIMIP2b simulations can be analysed to address different scientific questions involving global-mean temperature thresholds. You are invited to comment and add to these notes, which are intended to assist the entire ISIMIP community,  whilst not being prescriptive. The precise nature of the scientific question will determine the appropriate method for handling thresholds.

The plots show: (upper row) annual global mean tas; (middle row) 31-year running mean of global mean tas; (lower row) 31-year running mean of global mean tas minus 1661-1860 global mean piControl tas. Each column depicts a different global climate model and the colours represent the pre-industrial (grey), historical (black), RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP6.0 (yellow) scenarios.

ISIMIP2b Running Mean
Below are tables of the year in which the 31-year running mean of global mean temperature crosses the given thresholds.

RCP2.6

GMT-threshold IPSL-CM5A-LR GFDL-ESM2M MIROC5 HadGEM2-ES
3.0° - - - -
2.5° - - - -
2.0° 2029 - - -
1.5° 2009 - 2048 2026
1.0° 1993 2014 2015 2012
0.5° 1961 1989 1996 2000


RCP6.0

GMT-threshold IPSL-CM5A-LR GFDL-ESM2M MIROC5 HadGEM2-ES
3.0° 2068 - - 2076
2.5° 2048 - - 2063
2.0° 2029 2076 2071 2050
1.5° 2010 2056 2052 2032
1.0° 1993 2016 2023 2014
0.5° 1961 1989 1996 1999