ISIMIP3b temperature thresholds and time slices


Here are some thoughts on how ISIMIP3b simulations can be analysed to address different scientific questions involving global-mean temperature thresholds. You are invited to comment and add to these notes, which are intended to assist the entire ISIMIP community, whilst not being prescriptive. The precise nature of the scientific question will determine the appropriate method for handling thresholds.

The plots show: (upper row) annual global mean tas; (middle row) 31-year running mean of global mean tas; (lower row) 31-year running mean of global mean tas minus 1601-2100 global mean piControl tas. Each column depicts a different global climate model and the colours represent the pre-industrial (grey), historical (black), SSP1-2.6 (blue), SSP3-7.0 (light red), and SSP5-8.5 (dark red) scenarios. All of these plots are based on bias-corrected tas values.

ISIMIP3b_runningmean.png

Below are tables of the year in which the (bias-corrected) 31-year running mean of global mean temperature crosses the given thresholds.

SSP1-2.6

GMT-threshold GFDL-ESM4 IPSL-CM6A-LR MPI-ESM1-2-HR MRI-ESM2-0 UKESM1-0-LL
3.0° - - - - -
2.5° - - - - 2059
2.0° - 2036 - - 2036
1.5° - 2017 2047 2033 2023
1.0° 2021 1999 2013 2015 2011
0.5° 2000 1956 1988 1998 2000

SSP3-7.0

GMT-threshold GFDL-ESM4 IPSL-CM6A-LR MPI-ESM1-2-HR MRI-ESM2-0 UKESM1-0-LL
3.0° 2084 2055 2082 2075 2050
2.5° 2070 2043 2067 2060 2040
2.0° 2057 2032 2052 2047 2031
1.5° 2042 2018 2036 2032 2022
1.0° 2022 1999 2013 2015 2011
0.5° 2000 1956 1988 1998 2000

SSP5-8.5

GMT-threshold GFDL-ESM4 IPSL-CM6A-LR MPI-ESM1-2-HR MRI-ESM2-0 UKESM1-0-LL
3.0° 2076 2050 2074 2065 2046
2.5° 2065 2042 2063 2052 2039
2.0° 2053 2031 2050 2039 2031
1.5° 2039 2016 2034 2027 2022
1.0° 2022 1999 2014 2014 2011
0.5° 2000 1956 1988 1998 2000