Impact model: SDM-randomForest

Sector
Terrestrial biodiversity
Region
global

The SDM-randomForest dataset comprises species distribution models for 20,567 terrestrial vertebrate species (2,739 amphibians, 8,115 birds, 5,711 reptiles, and 4,002 mammals) developed using the Random Forest algorithm. Models were calibrated using species range maps from IUCN and BirdLife together with bioclimatic variables derived from a 30-year climatology (1981–2010) based on the GSWP3-W5E5 observational climate dataset (ISIMIP3a). The calibrated models were subsequently applied to historical and future climate-related forcing data from ISIMIP3b, including CMIP6-based simulations under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Projected distributions were constrained using a 1,000-km dispersal buffer. Two types of outputs are provided: (i) naturalized runs (nat), representing buffered climatic suitability without direct human forcing, and (ii) land-use-filtered runs, in which habitat suitability is estimated from ISIMIP3a/3b land-use and irrigation datasets and combined with climatic suitability to derive buffered probabilities of occurrence for each species.

Information for the model SDM-randomForest is provided for the simulation rounds shown in the tabs below. Click on the appropriate tab to get the information for the simulation round you are interested in.

Person responsible for model simulations in this simulation round
Mirely Guzman Torres: mirely.guzman@wyssacademy.org, 0000-0003-2274-5217, Wyss Academy for Nature (Switzerland)
Dirk Karger: dirk.karger@wsl.ch, 0000-0001-7770-6229, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL (Switzerland)
Output Data
Experiments: (*) ssp370_ssp370soc-noadapt+magpie_default, ssp126_ssp126soc-noadapt+image_default, ssp585_ssp585soc-noadapt+image_default, ssp370_ssp370soc-adapt+magpie_default, ssp370_ssp370soc-noadapt+image_default, ssp126_nat_default, ssp370_ssp370soc-adapt+image_default, ssp585_nat_default, ssp370_nat_default, ssp585_ssp585soc-noadapt+magpie_default, ssp585_ssp585soc-adapt+magpie_default, ssp126_ssp126soc-adapt+image_default, ssp585_ssp585soc-adapt+image_default, ssp126_ssp126soc-adapt+magpie_default, ssp126_ssp126soc-noadapt+magpie_default
Climate Drivers: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL
Date: 2026-07-02
Basic information
Model Version: 1.1
Model Output License: CC0
Model Homepage: https://gitlabext.wsl.ch/karger/isimip3_sdm/-/tree/V.1.1?ref_type=heads
Model License: CC 0
Resolution
Spatial aggregation: regular grid
Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x0.5°
Vertically resolved: No
Temporal resolution of input data: climate variables: 30-years mean
Temporal resolution of input data: land use/land cover: 30-years mean
Additional temporal resolution information: Thirty-year monthly climatologies were used to calculate bioclimatic variables for the baseline period (1981–2010) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100).
Input data
Simulated atmospheric climate data sets: MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, UKESM1-0-LL, GFDL-ESM4
Climate variables: hurs, sfcWind, tasmax, tas, tasmin, rsds, ps, pr
Spin-up
Was a spin-up performed?: No
Natural Vegetation
Natural vegetation partition: Partition based on Land use and irrigation data from ISIMIP3b using the variables "primary_forests", "primary_nonforests", "secondary_forests", "secondary_nonforests".
Natural vegetation dynamics: Proportion of natural land-use varies per SSP scenario, GCM, land-use model and forcing scenario.
Natural vegetation cover dataset: Land use and irrigation data from ISIMIP3b for five GCMs, two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE), and two forcing scenarios (noadapt and adapt).
Model specifications
Explanatory variables: Annual Mean Temperature Temperature Seasonality Annual Precipitation Precipitation Seasonality Mean Relative Humidity Relative Humidity Range Relative Humidity SD Frost Day Site Water Balance
Response variable: absence/presence of species
Software function: randomForest()
Software package: randomForest
Model output: probability of occurrence
Person responsible for model simulations in this simulation round
Mirely Guzman Torres: mirely.guzman@wyssacademy.org, 0000-0003-2274-5217, Wyss Academy for Nature (Switzerland)
Dirk Karger: dirk.karger@wsl.ch, 0000-0001-7770-6229, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL (Switzerland)
Output Data
Experiments: (*) obsclim_nat_default, obsclim_histsoc_default
Climate Drivers: GSWP3-W5E5
Date: 2026-07-02
Basic information
Model Version: 1.1
Model Homepage: https://gitlabext.wsl.ch/karger/isimip3_sdm/-/tree/V.1.1?ref_type=heads
Model License: CC 0
Resolution
Spatial aggregation: regular grid
Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x0.5°
Vertically resolved: No
Temporal resolution of input data: climate variables: 30-years mean
Temporal resolution of input data: land use/land cover: 30-years mean
Additional temporal resolution information: Thirty-year monthly climatologies were used to calculate bioclimatic variables for the baseline period (1981–2010) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100).
Input data
Observed atmospheric climate data sets: GSWP3-W5E5 (ISIMIP3a)
Land use data sets: Historical, gridded land use
Climate variables: hurs, huss, sfcWind, tasmax, tas, tasmin, rsds, ps, pr
Spin-up
Was a spin-up performed?: No
Natural Vegetation
Natural vegetation partition: Partition based on Land use and irrigation data from ISIMIP3b using the variables "primary_forests", "primary_nonforests", "secondary_forests", "secondary_nonforests".
Natural vegetation dynamics: Proportion of natural land-use varies per SSP scenario, GCM, land-use model and forcing scenario.
Natural vegetation cover dataset: Land use and irrigation data from ISIMIP3b for five GCMs, two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE), and two forcing scenarios (noadapt and adapt).
Model specifications
Model algorithm: Random Forest (RF)
Explanatory variables: Annual Mean Temperature Temperature Seasonality Annual Precipitation Precipitation Seasonality Mean Relative Humidity Relative Humidity Range Relative Humidity SD Frost Day Site Water Balance
Response variable: absence/presence of species
Distribution of response variable: Binomial
Software function: randomForest()
Model output: probability of occurrence