Cross-sectoral OptimESM and ISIMIP workshop 2025


The cross-sectoral OptimESM and ISIMIP workshop 2025 took place at:

  • When: the week from 5-8 May 2025
  • Where: PIK Potsdam, Germany
  • How: hybrid

We had approx. 85 on-site participants and further c. 150 online attendees. Thanks so much to all presenters and participants for your contributions and fruitful discussions. You made the event a great success!

Presentations are posted below for personal use, and you can download the group picture in high resolution and the detailed workshop program.

(For a larger view, please right-click on the program and open it in another tab.)

overview_program cross-sectoral OptimESM-ISIMIP workshop 05-08 05 2025.png

Workshop Agenda

Monday 05 May

Tuesday 06 May

Wednesday 07 May

Thursday 08 May

Please note that the linked presentation slides are for personal use only and may not be passed on or used for public purposes.


Scope

The workshop, while serving as the main annual ISIMIP workshop, was an activity as part of the Horizon Europe project OptimESM, and an excellent opportunity to connect the climate and climate impact modelling activities with regard to potential inputs to the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). In line with that, it included dedicated discussion sessions integrating the ESM, IAM and ISIMIP communities:

  • to identify options to define an “ISIMIP4 Fast Track” simulation round dedicated to provide climate impact model simulations based on the latest generation of ESM simulations in time for IPCC AR7,
  • to discuss data needs with regard to variables, bias-adjustment, and downscaling ,
  • to identify challenges in representing overshoot dynamics as a prominent characteristic of the OptimESM and CMIP7-ScenarioMIP scenarios both from the climate as well as the climate impact modellers perspective,
  • to discuss and prepare decisions on specific scenarios to focus on for the AR7.

Additionally, ISIMIP3 simulation results were presented both in context of impact model evaluation and impact attribution (ISIMIP3a), as well as future projections of risks (ISIMIP3b) with a focus on what we still have to learn regarding the preparation and application of the newly provided direct human forcings. 

There were slots for presentations, break-out groups, discussion rounds, etc. within the various sessions, as well as dedicated sectoral meetings, a poster session, and networking activities.


Monday 05 May


Session


Presentations


Sector meeting: Fisheries

10:00 - 11:30

Chair: Daniel van Denderen

Sector meeting: Agriculture

14:00 - 15:30

Chain: Sam Rabin

Cross-sector meeting: Biomes/Fire/Permafrost/Peat

16:00 - 17:30

Chair: Christopher Reyer


Tuesday May 06


Session


Presentations


Cross-Sector meeting: Water global/Groundwater

09:00 - 10:00

Chair: Robert Reinecke

  • Discussion of future cross-sector activities:
    • Paper-writing workshop at WRU with the Quality sector
    • Joint global water groundwater sector paper(s)
  • Discussion of synergies with WMO Water Resources Report
  • Discussion synergies with GEWEX groundwater group

Sector meeting: Water quality

09:00 - 11:00

Chair: Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann

  • Discussion of ongoing studies on “Climate change induced threats to Water Security”: progress and problems Case study countries/regions include:
    • Tuscany, Norway, Central Asia, India, Kenia and steppe and forest-steppe zones in Russia (Europe, Asia and Africa),
    • and the following river basins: Spree, Don and Danube river basins in Europe and Indus, Yangtze, Yellow, Mekong, Lena, Tom and Selenga river basins in Asia.
    • Altogether, 15 studies and papers are planned. The intention is to publish a Special Issue or Topical Collection, probably in Climatic Change (to be confirmed).

Sector meeting: Groundwater

10:00 - 11:30

Chair: Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf

  • Presentation of first joint paper (celebrate it a bit and provide a summary of models that participated and others we should motivate)
  • Discussion about the technical details of submitting model runs to ISIMIP
  • Discussion of future sector activities:
    • Time plan for when to have the first model data uploaded
    • Discuss a possible Special Issue

Sector meeting: Fisheries & Marine Ecosystems

10:00 - 12:30

Chair: Julia Blanchard, Olivier Maury

  • Joint OSP kickoff workshop and OptimESM-ISIMIP workshop session

Sector meeting: Health (climate-sensitive diseases)

11:00 - 12:30

Chair: Stella Dafka

  • Taking globally consistent health impact projections to the next level (Joacim Rockloev, Heidelberg University, remote presentation)
  • Introducing the Lancet Countdown Europe report (Hedi Kriit, Heidelberg University, remote presentation)
  • Lancet Countdown Europe and IDAlert study protocols / Datasets and models available within the health community (Stella Dafka, Hei-Planet, Heidelberg University)
  • Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe (Diana Erazo Quintero, University of Antwerp, remote presentation)
  • The Climate-Dengue Nexus: Europe’s Growing Vulnerability Under Anthropogenic Change (Pratik Singh, Heidelberg University)
  • Presentation of ideas for joint papers on the basis of ISIMIP3 data / Open round to present projects / Open discussion

Sector meeting: Peat

11:00 - 13.00

  • Brief overview of the peat sector for new participants
  • Status of participating models
  • Summary of completed simulations
  • Updates on paper ideas and progress
  • Discussion of next steps and future work

Sector meeting: Lakes

11:30 - 13:00

Chair: Wim Thiery

Sector meeting: Labour

11:30 - 12:30

Chair: Shouro Dasgupta

  • Overview of the sector and plans
  • Updates - ongoing work
  • Heat stress impacts and adaptation effectiveness in the UK
  • Updating labour impacts in IAMs

Sector meeting: Energy

12:00 - 14:00

Chair: Christian Otto

  • Update on ISIMIP3b protocols (10mins)
  • Input talks (10 mins + 5 mins Q&A):
    • Global energy consumption of water treatment technologies(Michelle Magni, U Utrecht, remote presentation)
    • Model intercomparison of surface water temperature under climate change and impacts on thermoelectric power (Edward Jones, U Utrecht, remote presentation)
    • Impact of Droughts on Hydropower Generation using a new Global Hydropower Plant and Reservoir dataset (GloHydroRes) and Hybrid Modelling (Jignesh Shah, U Utrecht, remote presentation,remote presentation)
    • Coupling TIMES Energy Systems Optimisation Models to Earth Systems Models to better understand optimal future investment and operation of future net-zero scenarios (James Glynn, ESMA)
  • Discussion on next steps (30mins)
    • What can we achieve this year?
    • Which runs and papers can we contribute to the AR7 based on ISIMIP3b / ISIMIP4 FT

Opening session: ISIMIP/OptimESM updates

14:00 - 14:30

Chair: Katja Frieler

Results presentations I

14:30 - 15:30

Chair: Tyler Eddy

Results presentation II

16:00 - 17:30

Chair: Ilaria Micella

Poster Session

17:30 - 18:30


Wednesday 07 May


Session


Presentations


Keynote: Jeroen Aerts

11:00 - 11:45

Chair: Jacob Schewe

Future projections of climate impacts accounting for socioeconomic changes and adaptation

11:45 - 13:00

Chair: Jacob Schewe

What are the current status, issues and future plans for future impact projections accounting for socioeconomic changes and adaptation (ISIMIP3b Group III)?

Scenarios and timeline for contributions to IPCC AR7 (ISIMIP4 (FT))

14:30 - 16:00

Chair: Christopher Reyer

Guiding question:

Key inputs and panel discussion panelists: Bart van den Hurk (IPCC Co-Chair WGII,VU Amsterdam), Helene Hewitt (MetOffice), Torben Koenigk (SMHI), Nico Bauer, Katja Frieler (PIK)

Sector perspectives on CMIP7 and overshoot scenarios

16:30 - 18:00

Chair: Jacob Schewe

Guiding questions:

Key inputs and panel discussion Panelists: ISIMIP sector coordinators


Thursday 08 May


Session


Presentations


Advancing (cross-sectoral) papers

09:00 - 10:30

Chair: Christian Otto

Keynotes: Paula Harrison, Damaris Zurell

11:00 - 12:00

Chair: Stefanie Heinicke

Direct human forcing data for climate impact simulations (ISIMIP4 DHF demands & provision options)

12:00 - 13:30

Chair: Inga Sauer

Guiding question: What DHF data is needed for impactful contributions to IPCC AR7 and how can it be generated in time?

Panel discussion panelists: ISIMIP Sector coordinators + Nico Bauer

Wrap up & Closing words

14:00 - 14:30

Chair: Katja Frieler

Sector meeting: Biodiversity

14:30 - 15:30

  • Discussion of open questions regarding ISIMIP3a+3b SDM runs, and the protocol beyond SDM runs
  • Discussion on how to include connections between land-use change, CC and biodiversity loss
  • Discussion of ways forward to ISIMIP4 and integrating different biodiversity models

Sector meeting: water global

14:30 - 17:30

Chair: Simon Gosling, Yadu Pokhrel