Cross-sectoral ISIMIP-PROCLIAS workshop 2024

The cross-sectoral ISIMIP-PROCLIAS workshop 2024 took place at:

• PIK, Potsdam (Germany) + remote option
• April 22 - 26 2024

We had c. 120 on-site participants and further c. 150 online attendees. Thanks so much to all presenters and participants for your contributions and fruitful discussions. You made the event a great success!

Presentations will be posted here, soon, and you can download the group picture in high resolution, the detailed workshop program and the separate program for the FireMIP pre-event.

Session

Presentations

Side event: FireMIP

(11:00-14:00 h)

Chairs: Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton

Welcome and on-going analyses:

• Overview of ISIMIP3a & FireMIP papers (Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe)
• PM2.5 in ISIMIP3a (Chaeyeon Park)
• High-latitude fire representations across the latest generation of global models (Matt Kasoar)
• Discussion on new paper plans with existing runs
• Fire activity changes from fuel- to moisture-limited along geographic gradients in rainfall within biomes (Riley Wadehra) (online)

Side event: FireMIP

(14:00-18:00 h)

Chairs: Chantelle Burton, Stijn Hantson

Further Analyses and Future Runs (with discussion of the ISIMIP3b future scenario runs)

• Update on ISIMIP3b future simulations and land use data (Christopher Reyer)
• Discussion on plans / who will do what runs
• Coupled NASA GISS ESM, “ModelE” (Keren Mezuman)
• Overview of CMIP7 (Fang Li)

Break-out groups:

• Group 1: Discussion on coupling fire in ESMs / CMIP7
• Group 2: Continued paper discussions
• Group 3: To be decided on the day

• Keynote: "From empirical to process-based fire models for DGVMs" (Kirsten Thonicke)

Side event: AgMIP-GGCMI

(14:30-17:00 h)

Chair: Jonas Jägermeyr

• New Future of life grant project overview and protocol and scenario design
• General GGCMI research updates

Session

Presentations

Side event: FireMIP

(09.00-13.30 h)

Chair: Matt Forrest, Fang Li

Session: Developments in data, understanding and modelling

• The FLARE Workshop's Future Directions of Fire Science, and What it Means for Global Fire Modelling. (Douglas Kelly)
• Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity (Robert Allen) (virtual)
• Predicting Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Amazon Rainforest Fires: Fitting and Equations (Sarah Gallup) (virtual)
• Determination of the Relationship between Thermal Change and Burn Rate in Plant Materials Affected by wildfire Using Hand Held Thermal Camera and Satellite Image (Turgay Dindaroglu)

Session: Fire model development horizons

Side event: FireMIP

(14.30 - 15.30)

Chair: Matt Forrest

Session: Fire model development horizons II and wrap

Sector meeting: Fisheries

(10.00-12.00)

Chair: Tyler Eddy

• Advances in modeling, data, and tools
  • BOATSv2: new developments & simulations (Kim Scherrer)
  • Presenting AquaMaps/AquaX (Gabriel Reygondeau)
• Discussion on AR7 needs, policy impacts, and future directions

Sector meeting: Lakes

(11.30 - 13.00)

Chair: Wim Thiery

• Current analysis using ISIMIP data
  • ISIMI koP local lakes sensitivity using LakeEnsemblR
  • Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across European lakes under climate change
• Current status of the lake sector
• Discussion
  • Adaptation options
  • Plans for new analyses

Sector meeting: Peat

(14.00-15.30)

Chair: Angela Gallego-Sala

• Peatlands have the potential to emerge as significant contributors to future climate warming (Nitin Chaudary) (virtual)

Sector meeting: Biodiversity

(14.00-15.30)

Chair: Stefanie Heinecke

• Will land-use change continue to be the main driver for biodiversity loss in the future? (Edouard Davin)
• Comprehensive Expansion: Advancements in Downscaling Algorithms Beyond Temperature and Precipitation for the CHELSA Dataset (Dirk Karger)
• GEO BON EcoCode - pushing towards (regional) biodiversity model intercomparisons including process-explicit models (Damaris Zurell)
• ISIMIP update for Biodiversity Sector (Stefanie Heinicke, Christopher Reyer)

Sector meeting: Water quality

(14.00 - 17.00)

Chair: Maryna Strokal

• Future global water scarcity including quality under climate and socioeconomic change (Edward Jones)
• Mapping present and future patterns of SDG indicator 6:3.2 in Africa using models (Maria Theresa Nakkazi)
• Development of the next steps towards Fast track and ISIMIP3 protocols

Sector meeting: Agriculture

(15.30 - 17.00)

Chair: Jonas Jägermeyr

• General updates
• GeoMIP involvement in ISIMIP and upcoming projects with Fisheries and Ag sector contribution
• GGCMI/ISIMIP 4 initial planning
• Validation of ISIMIP 3 crop simulations (Cornelia Auer)

Sector meeting: Biomes/PF/Fire/Peat

(16.00 - 17.30)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• Sector presentations and discussion

Sector meeting: Energy

(17.00 - 19.00)

Chair: Christian Otto

• Developments and ideas for potentials of climate impacts emulation in energy sector modelling (Ed Byers)
• The impacts of climate change on hydropower demand and supply in Italy. (Francesco Pietro Colelli)
• Presentation of ideas for joint papers on the basis of ISIMIP3 data.

Session

Presentations

PROCLIAS TG3.11: Heat warning catalogue

(09.00 - 10.00)

Chair: Aleš Urban

• Changes in heat-mortality over time: Are countries adapting to heat fast enough? (Samuel Lüthi)
• Assessing the effects of the heat health warning system on mortality in 15 German cities: A difference-in-differences approach (Veronika Huber)

Sector meeting: Fire/Peat

(09.00 - 10.00)

Chair: Stijin Hantson

• Global Peat Fire Modelling: Opportunities and Challenges (Allan Spessa) (virtual)
• Fire and Peat discussion

Sector meeting: Water quality

(09.00 - 10.00)

Chair: Maryna Strokal

• Status update on the process towards Fast track and ISIMIP3 protocols

Sector meeting: Forests (TG2.5)

(09.00 - 10.00)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• Ecosystem dynamics in arid conditions should be increasingly considered in vegetation model`s evaluation and improvement: The case of model iLand in Spanish pine forests (Agnish Kumar Das)
• Testing robustness and plausibility of Biome-BGCMuSo simulations at a large scale (Katarina Merganicova) (virtual)
• Reconciling climate-smart forestry in Europe with constraints on forest protection and timber demand (Konstantin Gregor)

Opening session

(10.00 - 11.30)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• ISIMIP/PROCLIAS updates and highlights (Katja Frieler, Christopher Reyer)
• ISIMIP QA/QC Tool (Hannes Müller Schmied, Jochen Klar)
• ISIMIP3b group III land use patterns (Edna Molina Bacca)
• EUCRA viewer (Jose Manuel Gutierrez) (virtual)

ISIMIP3a results (“from too dry to too wet”)

(12.00 - 13.30)

Chair: Simon Gosling

• The fingerprint of climate change in crop losses during recent heatwaves and droughts (Jonas Jägermeyr)
• Attribution clarifies the complex impacts of climate change on vegetation biomass change (Akihiko Ito, virtual).
• Impacts of past and future climate change on northern peatland hydrology: first results from the ISIMIP peatland sector (Michel Bechtold)
• Changing flood processes under future climate scenarios (Lina Stein)
• Towards validating reservoir operations in global hydrological models using satellite remote sensing – A case study in the CONUS (Naota Hanasaki, virtual).
• Summary of results on climate impact attribution on river discharge at the regional scale (from Topical Collection of papers in Climatic Change) (Valentina Krysanova)

ScenarioMIP/ISIMIP4

Keynote: Brian O'Neill

(14.45 - 16.00)

Chair: Christian Otto

• General Introduction (Katja Frieler)
• Keynote: Scenarios for CMIP7: Status and Next Steps (Brian O’Neill)
• ScenarioMIP task force insights (Nico Bauer)
• ESM perspectives (Chris Jones, Colin Jones)

ScenarioMIP/ISIMIP4

(16.30 - 17.30)

Chair: Franziska Piontek

• Recap (Katja Frieler)
• Open discussion with expert panel (Brian O’Neill, Nico Bauer, Bart van den Hurk, Colin Jones/Chris Jones): ISIMIP data needs, IAM capacities, ISIMIP4-Scenarios

Poster Session I

(17.30 - 21.00)

• Examining the contribution of human induced climate change on global soil moisture drought characteristics (Aris Koutroulis)
• Graphical representation of global water models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) (Hannes Müller Schmied)
• Thirsty sectors: a layered model for managing scarce water resources (Ioan Sabin Taranu)
• Assessing the impact of climate change on erosion processes near bridges over rivers – data and methodological challenges (Kristina Potočki and Martina lacko)
• Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar (Adrian Rinaldo)
• How multi-sectoral climate-related risks could cumulate and affect livestock in West Africa (Audrey Brouillet)
• Biosphere destabilization in ISIMIP3b scenarios (Fabian Stenzel)
• Climate impacts on crop losses: Using satellite data and spatial models to foster food security (Shannon de Roos)

Session

Presentations

PROCLIAS highlights from WG’s 1-4

(09.00 - 10.00)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• WG1: ISIMIP3a high-resolution sensitivity experiments (Johanna Malle/Dirk Karger)
• WG2: Developments and challenges in attributing climate change impacts (Sabine Undorf)
• WG3: Understanding multiple climate risks (Simon Gosling)
• WG4: Stakeholder Engagement for Climate Impact Attribution Studies: Opportunities, Challenges, and Pathways to Impact (Albert Nkwasa)

Sector meeting: Water regional

(10.00 - 11.00)

Chair: Valentina Krysanova

• Overview of results on climate impact attribution in our Special Issue (SI)
• Discussion about a topic for further research and potential next SI

PROCLIAS TG1.2: Automatic quality check / quality assessment of impact model output

(10.00 - 11.00)

Chair: Hannes Müller Schmied

• Recent developments and use-cases
• Way forward - discussing of further developments
• Continuation of the network

PROCLIAS TG3.2

(10.00 - 11.00)

Chair: Shouro Dasgupta

• Impact of heat on labour

PROCLIAS TG4.2

(10.00 - 11.00)

Chair: Liliana Zaharia

• Stakeholder mapping

Early Career Session: Discussions on future research pathways

(10.00 - 11.00)

Chair: Jacob Schewe

• Cross-sectoral research ideas
• Catering the demands from the upcoming IPCC AR7 cycle
• Addressing issues raised at COP28

Poster Session II

(11:00-12:00)

• Climate change impact on wireless communications (Louis-François Pau)
• Unveiling the Value of Cultural Forest Services: Overcoming Analytical Challenges for Informed Policy Decisions (Melania Michetti)
• Education and capacity building on climate change and planetary health for healthcare professionals in global context (Muhammed Asaduzzaman)
• The effect of extreme weather on coastal ecosystems and their services (Sarah Hülsen)
• Results of the ISIMIP Lake Sector calibration study (Tom Lorimer)
• Vary me a river: investigating the impacts of climate variability on hydropower and electricity systems planning in Switzerland (Yann Yasser Haddad)
• Assessing the Risk and Impact of Fire Weather under Different Climate Change Scenarios (Yi-Ling Hwong)

Cross-sectoral presentations and panel discussion

(12.00 - 13.30)

Chair: Maryna Strokal

• Global emergence of unprecedented exposure to climate extremes (Wim Thiery)
• Temporal Dynamics of Internal Mobility in Response to Climate Extremes: A Global Analysis (2000-2019) (Kristina Petrova)
• Interactive assessment of climate impacts and vulnerability hotspots using ISIMIP data & Climate impact emulation and integration to IAMs (Michaela Werning, Edward Byers)
• Regional economic climate impacts in Europe: preliminary results from the TRACE (PESETA 5) project (Ignazio Mongelli) (virtual)

Cross-sectoral panel discussion

(12.00 - 13.30)

Chair: Jacob Schewe

• Study prospects

Keynote: Bart van den Hurk

(14.30 - 15.00)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• Impact assessments and scenarios in the Seventh IPCC Assessment Cycle: overview of current discussions

Cross-sectoral panel discussion

(15.00 - 16.00)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• AR7 demands

Cross-sectoral panel discussion

(16.30 - 17.30)

Chair: Matthias Mengel

• Impact monitoring

Session

Presentations

ISIMIP results and closing remarks

(09.00 - 10.30)

Chair: Veronika Huber

• Exposure of Europe's critical transport infrastructure to climate extremes (Cristina Deidda)
• Estimating Flood Risk under Global Warming: An Approach from the Insurance Industry (Giulia Giani)
• The regularity of climate-related extreme events under global warming (Karim Zantout)
• Children disproportionally exposed to attributable heatwaves at low-latitude low-income countries (Rosa Pietroiusti) (virtual)
• Can we understand the variability in flood-induced displacement using process-based global flood modelling? (Sandra Zimmerman)
• Global change impacts on ecosystems and food: bridging the land-sea divide (Julia Blanchard)

PROCLIAS TG2.1: State of the art and ways forward for impact attribution

(10.30 - 11.30)

Chair: Veronika Huber

• How do ISIMIP3a detrended climate observations compare with GCM-based ISIMIP3b climate baselines? (Mel Thanatcha Brehon)

PROCLIAS WG4

(10.30 - 12.00)

Chair: Albert Nkwasa

• Paper discussion: “Stakeholder Engagement in Climate Impact Attribution: Opportunities, Challenges, and Pathways to Impact”