Cross-sectoral ISIMIP-PROCLIAS workshop 2023

The cross-sectoral ISIMIP-PROCLIAS workshop 2023 took place in:

Prague, Czech Republic + remote option

June 5 - 8 2023

Please find the detailed agenda and available presentations and talks below, and download the agenda here.

(For a bigger view of the overview agenda right click on the image and open it in a separate tab, or download and open it in your image viewer.)

Session

Presentations

Sector meeting Fisheries & Marine Ecosystems

(9:30-1:30 am)

Chair: Olivier Maury

• Development of ISIMIP-FishMIP 3b protocol: Identification of future socioeconomic forcing data for 3b protocol

Sector meeting Lakes

(10:00-11:00 am)

Chair: Daniel Mercado-Bettín

• Introduction and status update (Daniel Mercado-Bettín)
• "How much difference does it make to ISIMIP simulations when we don't calibrate our lake models?" (Tom Lorimer)
• “The effect of climate change and eutrophication on lake water quality globally” (Annette Janssen)
• "Anthropogenic perturbation of organic carbon burial in global lake Sediments – An ISIMIP analysis" (Don Pierson)
• “The Footprint of global climate oscillations on surface temperatures across lakes” (Daniel Mercado-Bettín)

Sector meeting Water regional

(11:00-12:00 am)

Chair: Fred Hattermann

• Status update and discussion on the Special Issue in preparation

Sector meeting Water global (1)

(12:30-1:30 pm)

Chairs: Simon Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied

• “WAYS model and global water resources assessment” (Jungo Liu)
• “Validation of reservoir operation using satellite remote sensing for global hydrological models under ISIMIP” (Kedar Otta)
• “Update on GLOBGM (1 km GLOBal Groundwater Model): Progress and challenge” (Edwin Sutanudjaja)

Opening Session

(1:30-3:00 pm)

Chairs: Laura Dobor, Christopher Reyer

• Welcome presentation (Radek Rinn, Vice Dean Riat CZU)
• ISIMIP News and status update (Katja Frieler)
• PROCLIAS News and status update (Christopher Reyer/Laura Dobor)
• TG1.1: ISIMIP 3b Land use patterns (Edna Mollina Bacca)
• TG3.11: Expert elicitation of Heat-Health Action Plans (Aleš Urban)
• TG1.7 High resolution climate forcing data (Johanna Malle)

Automatic quality check / quality assessment of impact model output

(TG 1.2)

(3:30-5:30 pm)

Chair: Hannes Müller Schmied

• QC tool (45 min, around 20 min presentation):
  • Presenting / guide through QC-Tool functionalities (Matthias Büchner)
  • Application of QC in model development (Hannes Müller Schmied)
  • What happens when variable ranges are violated (workflow/documentation?) (Matthias Büchner)
  • Encourage users to use the qc tool on their side before submission to save computing time at PIK-side (not all data can be checked there due to time and computing limitations) (Matthias Büchner)
  • Discussing demand for additional features / open discussion
• QA tool (45 min):
  • Presenting current QA-Tool functionalities (Jochen Klar)
  • Overview of NFDI4Earth proposal (Hannes Müller Schmied)
  • Presentation stream network assessment (Hannes Müller Schmied)
  • Call for contribution to the hackathon (Gerbrand Koren/Hannes Müller Schmied)
  • Discussing demand for other sectors & key features for the QA-tool
• Open discussion (20 min)

High resolution experiment (TG 1.7)

(3:30-5:30 pm)

Chairs: Johanna Malle, Dirk Karger

• Overview of the ISIMIP high-resolution experiment & first results from forest sector (Johanna Malle, Dirk Karger)
• Next steps

Sector meeting: Energy fluctuations and Extremes

(3:30-5:30 pm)

Chair: Christian Otto

• “Global gridded projections of household cooling energy demand to 2050” (Giacomo Falchetta)
• “Observed changes in climate can empirically identify long-run adaptation: the extensive vs intensive margins of energy demand” (Francesco Colelli)
• “Closing loops – the rapid emulation of climate risks and integration into IAMs” (Edward Byers)

Sector meeting Labour

(3:30-5:30 pm)

Chair: Shouro Dasgupta

• Adaptation in the labour force - PROCLIAS TG presentation (Shouro Dasgupta)
• Attributing historical changes in the labour force to climate change (Shouro Dasgupta, Simon Gosling)
• "Assessing macro-economic effects of climate impacts on labour productivity in the EU" (Standardi)

Poster Session and Welcome Reception

(5:30-7:00 pm)

• “Planning of Ecological Corridors for Adaptation to Climate Changes in Degraded Karst Forest Ecosystems” (Turgay Dindaroglu)
• “Interdependence among subregional crop production affects global crop failure risk” (Sifang Feng)
• “The perfect storm? Concurrent climate extremes in East Africa” (Derrick Muheki)
• “Quantifying Adaptive Capacity for Climate Risk Assessment: A Framework Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)” (Edward Byers)
• “Quantification of peatland-mediated feedbacks to the climate system” (Nitin Chaudhary)
• “Global surface water quality under uncertain climate and socio-economic change” (Edward R. Jones)
• “Future projections of anthropogenic perturbation of organic carbon burial in global lake sediments” (Ana I. Ayala)
• “Using basin-scale physiographic attributes to improve river routing in JULES” (Aristeidis Koutroulis)
• “ISIMIP data management and submission process” (Iliusi Vega del Valle, Matthias Büchner)

ISIMIP Sector presentation

(9:00-10:15 am)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• Introduction to the ISIMIP sectors (Christopher Reyer)
• Cross-sectoral panel discussion

PROCLIAS Task group 3.2 & 3.11 workshop

(9:30 am - 3:30 pm)

Chair: Aleš Urban

Expert elicitation on Heat-Health Action Plans

• Please note that this is was separate event and participation was upon invitation only.

Presentation of ISIMIP 3a Simulation results

(10:30-12:00 am)

Chair: Matthias Mengel

• “The Effect of Climate Change on Global Wildfire Activity” (Seppe Lampe)
• “Evaluating simulated discharge in global hydrological models from ISIMIP3a” (Stefanie Heinicke)
• “Attribution of climate change imprint on riverine nutrient export to African coastal waters” (Albert Nkwasa)
• “Quantifying the contribution of climate change to heat-attributable mortality in Europe” (Thessa Beck)
• “The burden of temperature-related stillbirths and neonatal deaths attributable to climate change – a global analysis across 29 Low- and Middle-income countries” (Asya Dimitrova)
• “Attribution of historical change of vegetation biomass” (Akihiko Ito)

Sector meeting Fisheries & Marine Ecosystems (2)

(12:15-2:15 pm)

Chair: Julia Blanchard

• Discussion on integration of future soc scenarios into 3b protocol

Sector meeting Forest

(12:45-2:15 pm)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• TG2.3: “Tree establishment in models of forest dynamics: protocol for a multi-model simulations and results from a PROCLIAS workshop” (Olalla Díaz-Yáñez)
• “Strategies for climate-smart forestry in European forests under uncertain future climate” (Konstantin Gregor)
• “Calibration and validation of the model Biome-BGCMuSo for simulation of SOC change in oak forests in Europe – results from STSM in Zvolen” (Doroteja Bitunjac)
• “Effect of forest management choices on carbon sequestration and biodiversity at national scale” (Annikki Mäkelä)
• “Data assimilation of forest status using Sentinel-2 data and a process-based model” (Francesco Minunno)
• “Linking forest dynamics modelling with close-range photogrammetry and biodiversity assessments” (Merganičová Katarína)

Sector meeting Water global (2)

(1:15-2:15 pm)

Chairs: Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Gosling

• “The impact of historical human water management and land-use change on the global risk of riverine ecological change” (Simon Gosling)
• “Reservoir air-conditioning: a sustainable seasonal thermal energy storage technology” (Julian David Hunt)
• “Towards a theory of evaluation for global water models” (Sebastian Gnann)

Agriculture-Water-Food-Health Nexus

(2:30-3:30 pm)

Chair: Shouro Dasgupta

• "Food insecurity in the context of a changing climate” (Elizabeth Robinson)
• “Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate change impacts on crop yields” (Hermen Luchtenbelt)
• “Attribution of historical changes in food security to climate change” (Shouro Dasgupta)

Career planning Panel for Early-Stage Researcher

(2:30-3:30 pm)

Chair: Katarina Merganičová

• Brainstorming session with Early-Stage Researchers on what activities within PROCLIAS/ISIMIP would be particularly helpful focusing on technical skills but also career development etc.

Country-scale forest modeling

(2:30-3:30 pm)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• Follow-up and discussion on previous forest session and follow-up project plans

Poster Session 2 & Coffee Break

(3:30-4:30 pm)

• “Climate change impact on wireless communications” (Louis-François Pau)
• “Biosphere integrity indicators analyzed for future ISIMIP3b climate and land use scenarios” (Fabian Stenzel)
• “Assessment of climate change-driven compound coastal-fluvial urban flooding” (Indiana A. Olbert)
• “What happens to our ISIMIP simulations when we do not calibrate our lake models?” (Tom Lorimer)
• “ISIMIP data for spatial compound event analysis” (Cristina Deidda)
• “Potential future climate change impacts on afforestation and reforestation” (Fabian Stenzel)
• “Does higher spatial resolution increase the accuracy of simulated land-surface processes in complex terrain?” (Johanna T. Malle)
• “Application of Air2Stream model to predict river water temperature in two catchments for different climate change scenarios” (Jingshui Huang)
• “Model evaluation strategy has an impact on the performance and interpretation of machine learning models for the prediction of maize yield variability” (Lily-belle Sweet)
• “Climate change impact on spatial and temporal fish habitats availability” (Vytautas Akstinas)
• “Assessing the impact of climate change on erosion processes near bridges over rivers” (Kristina Potočki)
• “ISIMIP data management and submission process” (Iliusi Vega del Valle, Matthias Büchner)

Sector meeting Biomes/Permafrost/Fire

(4:30-5:30)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• Biomes, Permafrost, Fire sector overview (models, simulation status, paper plans, first results, main challenges) (C Reyer, J Chang/E Burke/F Li, C Burton, S Hantson)
• Planning of ISIMIP3b group III simulations (with changing future land-use etc...) (C Reyer, E Molina Bacca)
• Open discussion on integration across the three sectors

Sector meeting Water global (3)

(4:40-5:30 pm)

Chairs: Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Gosling

• “Drought events from 1971-2001 and their propagation” (Amit Kumar)
• “Agreements and divergent patterns in the reproducibility of hydrologic fluxes and storages simulated by ISIMIP global water models” (Yadu Pokhrel)
• “Quantifying lifetime water scarcity” (Inne Vanderkelen)

Sector meeting Agriculture

(4:30-5:30 pm)

Chairs: Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin

• Informal Q+A session introducing ongoing activities

Sector meeting Fisheries & Marine Ecosystems (3)

(9:00-10:00 am)

Chair: Derek Tittensor

• "Potential impacts of solar radiation management on global fish biomass” (Kelsey E. Roberts)
  • Discussion on climate mitigation and geoengineering scenarios
• “The Ocean System Pathways (OSP) for driving marine ecosystems & fisheries models.” (Olivier Maury)
  • Discussion on integration into FishMIP models

PROCLIAS WG4: Communication and Dissemination of climate impacts

(9:00-10:00)

Chair: Albert Nkwasa

• “Stakeholders in climate litigation” (Rosa Pietroiusti)
• “Incorporating stakeholder feedback into the modeling concept – a case study of Lake Victoria basin” (Annika Schlemm)

PROCLIAS Task group 3.2 & 3.11 workshop

(9:00-10:00 am)

Chair: Aleš Urban

Expert elicitation on Heat-Health Action Plans

• Please note that this is was separate event and participation was upon invitation only.

Presentations from selected ISIMIP/PROCLIAS activities

(10:00-11:00 am)

Chair: Laura Dobor

• ISIMIP Interactive Viewer for the European Climate Risk Assessment - beta version (Julie Berckmans)
• Automatic quality check / quality assessment of impact model output (Hannes Müller Schmied)
• “Hot models” in CMIP 6 climate projections (Jacob Schewe)
• “Mapping global gender inequality in water security” (Kaoru Kakinuma)

Presentations of ISIMIP 3b Simulation results

(11:15-12:45 pm)

Chair: Jacob Schewe

• “Children disproportionally exposed to attributable heatwaves at low-latitude low-income countries” (Rosa Pietroiusti)
• “Climate change risk to Eurasian Rangelands for Sustainability of Pastoralism” (Banzragch Nandintsetseg)
• “1.5℃ or not 1.5℃? That is the [burning] question: Fire as an example for assessing temperature thresholds of emerging impacts” (Chantelle A. Burton)
• “Combining future projections of land-use and climate change to assess their impact on biodiversity” (Chantal Hari)
• “More or less fish in future oceans? The importance of scale for climate change projections” (Tyler D. Eddy)
• “Using ecological theory to evaluate and reduce uncertainties of a marine ecosystem model ensemble” (Camilla Novaglio)

Keynote

(14:15-15:00 pm)

Chair: Katja Frieler

• “Challenges and opportunities of an integrated perspective on impacts, adaptation and mitigation” (Prof. Dr. Keywan Riahi, IIASA)

Sector Meeting: Peat

(15:00 - 17:30 pm)

Chair: Angela Gallego-Sala

• "Offsetting climate and land use effects on wetland methane emissions over 1901-2020” (Etienne Fluet-Chouinard)

Key risks across sectors

(15:30 - 17:30 pm)

Chair: Christian Otto

• "Towards quantifying IPCC Key Risks for ecosystems and biodiversity” (Alex Köberle)
• “Assessing energy availability for satisfying human needs along climate mitigation pathways” (Jarmo Kikstra)
• “Urban heat and global inequality” (Steffen Lohrey)
• “Protecting the power grid from extreme wind events: Increasing resilience by protecting critical lines” (Mehrnaz Anvari)
• “The "conflict trap" reduces economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.” (Kristina Petrova)

Sector Meeting: Water Quality 1

(15:30 - 17:00 pm)

Chair: Maryna Strokal

• Modeling Protocol

Sector Meeting: Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems

(09:00 - 11:00 am)

Chair: Tyler Eddy

• FishMIP FAO Policy Report: key highlights and next steps (Julia Blanchard & Camilla Novaglio)
  • Discussion: Key modeling needs for making regional assessments more reliable for policy
• FAO Summary Report (Discussion)

Sector Meeting: Water Quality 2

(10:00 - 11:30 am)

Chair: Ann van Griensven

• Regional modeling

Sector Meeting: Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems

(11:00 - 17:00 pm)

Chair: Kelsey Roberts & Camilla Novaglio

• Team writing session

Sector Meeting: Groundwater

(13:00 - 18:00 pm)

Chair: Robert Reinecke

• Programm tba

Sector Meeting: Water Quality 3

(13:00 - 14:00 pm)

Chair: Maryna Strokal & Ann van Griensven

• “Water quality protocols for intersectoral comparisons and climate change” (Maryna Strokal)
• “Future water quality in Ukraine under climate change” (Vita Strokal)
• “Climate change impacts on reservoir quality: a case study of Ukraine” (Anna Kurovska)
• Progress updates and further discussions (Maryna Strokal)

Sector Meeting: Lakes

(14:00 - 15:30 pm)

Chair: Daniel Mercado-Bettín & Don Pierson

• Discussion of future activities